Ontario Reign - AHL 25-26 - Season Chance Stats

58 points

28-13-1-1

Playoff chances: 99.9%

Current Streak: 1L

Winless in Regulation: 1 game

Compare with:

Recent Games

Sat Jan 31 Sat 01-31

ONT 3

SD 4

Wed Jan 28 Wed 01-28

ABB 2

ONT 5

Sat Jan 24 Sat 01-24

COL 1

ONT 4

Fri Jan 23 Fri 01-23

ONT 3

CV 2

Sun Jan 18 Sun 01-18

ONT 1

TEX 3

Sat Jan 17 Sat 01-17

ONT 4

TEX 3

Wed Jan 14 Wed 01-14

ONT 4

COL 3

Tue Jan 13 Tue 01-13

ONT 6

COL 3

Sun Jan 11 Sun 01-11

ONT 0

BAK 3

Fri Jan 09 Fri 01-09

HSK 4

ONT 5

Big Games ❓

Upcoming important games and who we should root for.

Sunday, February 01 Importance: 6

Coachella Valley Firebirds 49 pts (95%)

Ontario Reign 58 pts (100%)

Team on 3-game losing streak Some playoff implications Teams somewhat close in standings Elite quality matchup Top 5 division teams Division matchup Similar goal differential per game Home team on back-to-back

Friday, February 06 Importance: 4

Ontario Reign 58 pts (100%)

Bakersfield Condors 55 pts (99%)

Game in 5 days Some playoff implications Teams close in standings Elite quality matchup Top 5 conference teams | Top 3 division teams Division matchup Mid-season series game Similar goal differential per game

Saturday, February 07 Importance: 2

Bakersfield Condors 55 pts (99%)

Ontario Reign 58 pts (100%)

Game in 6 days Some playoff implications Teams close in standings Elite quality matchup Top 5 conference teams | Top 3 division teams Division matchup Mid-season series game Similar goal differential per game

Wednesday, February 04 Importance: 2

Tucson Roadrunners 46 pts (62%)

Ontario Reign 58 pts (100%)

Playoff race implications High quality matchup Division matchup Similar goal differential per game

Saturday, February 14 Importance: -10

Ontario Reign 58 pts (100%)

Abbotsford Canucks 36 pts (0%)

Game in 13 days Team on 3-game losing streak Division matchup Similar goal differential per game

Monday, February 16 Importance: -12

Ontario Reign 58 pts (100%)

Abbotsford Canucks 36 pts (0%)

Game in 15 days Team on 3-game losing streak Division matchup Similar goal differential per game

Wednesday, February 18 Importance: -14

Abbotsford Canucks 36 pts (0%)

Ontario Reign 58 pts (100%)

Game in 17 days Team on 3-game losing streak Division matchup Similar goal differential per game

Saturday, February 21 Importance: -18

Ontario Reign 58 pts (100%)

Tucson Roadrunners 46 pts (62%)

Game in 20 days Playoff race implications High quality matchup Division matchup Similar goal differential per game

Performance Analysis ❓

Performance splits and trends for Ontario Reign.

Last 10 Games

Record: 7-3-0-0

Points: 14 (.700)

Goal Differential: +7

Trend (last 10 games):

Green = above season avg Red = below season avg

vs League Avg: +13.7%

vs Conference Avg: +15.6%

vs Division Avg: +15.0%

Last 7 Days

Record: 2-1-0-0

Points: 4 (.667)

Goal Differential: +5

Trend:

Green = above season avg Red = below season avg

vs League Avg: +9.6%

vs Conference Avg: +10.8%

vs Division Avg: +13.7%

Last 30 Days

Record: 10-3-0-0

Points: 20 (.769)

Goal Differential: +12

Trend:

Green = above season avg Red = below season avg

vs League Avg: +20.2%

vs Conference Avg: +21.4%

vs Division Avg: +19.4%

Playoff Advancement Odds

Playoff Qualification: 99.9%

Win Round 1: 71.1%

Win Round 2: 40.4%

Win Round 3: 21.7%

Win Round 4: 10.0%

🏆 Win Calder Cup 🏆: 4.5%

Expected Playoff Games: 8.2

Expected Playoff Rounds: 2.4

Home vs Away

Home: 15-4-1-1 (.762)

+17.9% vs league +17.3% vs conf +14.6% vs div

Away: 13-9-0-0 (.591)

+4.1% vs league +4.8% vs conf +4.5% vs div

Monthly Splits

October 2025

5-2-1-0 (.688)

November 2025

6-5-0-0 (.545)

December 2025

7-3-0-1 (.682)

January 2026

10-3-0-0 (.769)

By Opponent Conference

Eastern Conference:

0-0-0-0 (N/A)

Western Conference:

28-13-1-1 (.674)

By Opponent Division

Atlantic Division:

0-0-0-0 (N/A)

North Division:

0-0-0-0 (N/A)

Central Division:

4-2-0-0 (.667)

Pacific Division:

24-11-1-1 (.676)

After Previous Result

After Win:

16-11-0-1 (.589)

After Reg. Loss:

11-1-0-0 (.917)

After OTL:

1-0-0-0 (1.000)

After SOL:

0-1-0-0 (.000)

By Days Rest

0 Days Rest:

6-6-0-0 (.500)

1 Day Rest:

7-2-0-0 (.778)

2 Days Rest:

7-4-0-1 (.625)

3+ Days Rest:

8-1-0-0 (.889)

By Day of Week

Monday:

0-0-0-0 (N/A)

Tuesday:

5-0-0-0 (1.000)

Wednesday:

4-3-0-0 (.571)

Thursday:

0-0-0-0 (N/A)

Friday:

7-2-1-0 (.750)

Saturday:

7-4-0-1 (.625)

Sunday:

5-4-0-0 (.556)

Win/Loss Streaks

Current Streak: 1 game losing streak (Started Jan 31)

Current Winless in Regulation: 1 game (Started Jan 31)

Longest Win Streak: 4 game (Dec 06 - Dec 12)

Longest Loss Streak: 2 game (Nov 12 - Nov 15)

Longest Unbeaten in Regulation: 4 game (Dec 06 - Dec 12)

Longest Winless in Regulation: 4 game (Nov 01 - Nov 08)

Game Margin

One-Goal Games:

15-4-1-1 (.762)

Two-Goal Games:

1-4 (.200)

Three-Goal Games:

8-3 (.727)

4+ Goals:

4-2 (.667)

By Opponent Strength

vs Above .500:

20-12-1-1 (.618)

vs Below .500:

8-1-0-0 (.889)

Goal Scoring Trends (Last 30 Days)

Avg Goals For: 3.46

Avg Goals Against: 2.54

Avg Goal Differential: +0.92

Rankings & Ratings

SOS: .540

SOS Rank: #29

RPI: .580

RPI Rank: #7

Performance vs Expected

58 Points 56.1

.674 Points % .653

+27 Goal Diff +37.9

145 Goals For 149.3

118 Goals Against 111.5

28 Wins 28.1

Odds History

Playoff Odds:

Peak: 100.0% on Oct 12

90%: Oct 10

75%: Oct 10

50%: Oct 10

Recent Trend: → Stable

Championship Odds:

Peak: 3.1% on Oct 10

Recent Trend: → Stable

League Positioning

Current Position: 5th since Jan 30

Best Position: 4th on Jan 09

Worst Position: 19th on Oct 18

Recent Change: ↗ 5th from 7th (Jan 01-31)

Conference Positioning

Current Position: 3rd since Jan 30

Best Position: 2nd on Nov 11

Worst Position: 10th on Oct 11

Recent Change: → 3rd position (Jan 01-31)

Division Positioning

Current Position: 2nd since Jan 30

Best Position: 1st on Jan 09

Worst Position: 6th on Oct 11

Recent Change: → 2nd position (Jan 01-31)

Magic/Tragic Number

Magic Number: 49

Tragic Number: 70

What If ❓

Chances based on how well the ONT finish out the regular season.

If finish:					Chance	Chance	Chance will finish regular season at seed	Count
Points	W	L	OTL	SOL	in Playoffs	of Macgregor Kilpatrick Trophy	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17	2,500
109	25	4	0	0	In	100.0%	100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	1
108	24	5	0	0	In	0.0%	50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	2
107	24	5	0	0	In	66.7%	67 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	3
106	23	5	1	0	In	0.0%	17 67 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	6
105	23	5	1	0	In	40.0%	40 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	10
104	22	6	1	0	In	0.0%	14 86 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	14
103	22	6	1	0	In	3.4%	10 83 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	29
102	21	7	1	0	In	0.0%	10 84 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	51
101	21	7	1	0	In	3.2%	3 77 16 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	62
100	20	8	1	0	In	0.9%	7 73 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	106
99	20	8	1	0	In	0.0%	2 69 24 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	114
98	19	9	1	0	In	0.0%	0 54 41 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	138
97	19	9	1	0	In	0.0%	1 45 42 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	171
96	18	10	1	0	In	0.0%	1 27 55 15 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	190
95	18	10	1	0	In	0.0%	0 23 51 22 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	202
94	17	10	2	0	In	0.0%	0 11 42 40 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	206
93	16	11	2	0	In	0.0%	0 6 41 42 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	195
92	16	11	2	0	In	0.0%	0 3 23 38 29 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	185
91	15	11	2	1	In	0.0%	0 1 17 38 27 13 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	168
90	14	12	2	1	In	0.0%	0 0 8 31 39 16 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	147
89	14	12	2	1	In	0.0%	0 0 1 18 36 34 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	137
88	13	13	2	1	In	0.0%	0 0 0 9 20 42 28 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	105
87	13	13	2	1	In	0.0%	0 0 0 1 23 42 30 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	87
86	12	13	3	1	In	0.0%	0 0 0 0 3 39 32 19 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	59
85	11	14	3	1	In	0.0%	0 0 0 0 2 20 36 31 7 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0	45
84	11	14	3	1	In	0.0%	0 0 0 0 9 14 32 23 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	22
83	10	15	3	1	In	0.0%	0 0 0 0 0 0 9 41 41 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0	22
82	10	15	3	1	In	0.0%	0 0 0 0 0 9 9 54 18 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	11
81	9	16	3	1	In	0.0%	0 0 0 0 0 0 25 25 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	4
80	9	16	3	1	In	0.0%	0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	1
79	8	17	3	1	66.7%	0.0%	0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 67 17 0 0 0 0 0	6
78	8	17	3	1	In	0.0%	0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	1