About Season Chance Stats

Season Chance Stats is a comprehensive hockey statistics platform that provides advanced analytics, playoff odds, and season analysis for professional hockey leagues. Our system uses sophisticated Monte Carlo simulations and statistical methods to deliver accurate, real-time insights into team performance and championship probabilities.

Origins & Inspiration

Season Chance Stats was inspired by Ken Roberts' Sports Club Stats, which provided Monte Carlo simulation-based playoff odds across multiple sports from 2007 to 2022. When Ken made the decision to shut down Sports Club Stats, it left a significant void in the hockey analytics community, particularly for fans of minor league hockey.

Our Season Chance Stats project was created to fill that void and continue Ken's legacy of providing accessible, accurate playoff probability analysis. While we've built our system from the ground up with modern technologies and optimizations, we owe a debt of gratitude to Ken for demonstrating the value and methodology of this type of analysis. His work showed us what was possible and continues to inspire our development.

How It Works

Monte Carlo Simulation

Our system uses the Monte Carlo method to estimate playoff probabilities. Here's how it works:

1. Current State: We start with the actual current standings and remaining schedule.
2. Simulate Games: We randomly simulate the outcome of every remaining game, with each team's probability of winning based on their current performance metrics.
3. Apply League Rules: We apply the league's tie-breaking rules to determine final standings.
4. Simulate Playoffs: For teams that make the playoffs in each simulation, we simulate the entire playoff bracket. This includes generating matchups based on league format (division-based or conference-based), simulating best-of-N series with league-specific formats, and tracking advancement through each round to determine the champion.
5. Repeat: We repeat this process millions of times.
6. Calculate Odds: We calculate the percentage of simulations where each team made the playoffs, won their division, advanced through each playoff round, and won the championship.

Game Outcome Probability

When simulating each game, we use a weighted probability based on:

• Team Performance: Goals scored/allowed differential (using the Pythagorean expectation adapted for hockey)
• Home Ice Advantage: Statistical home team advantage (~54% in most leagues)
• Regression to Mean: Early-season records are adjusted to account for small sample sizes

Accuracy & Limitations

What the system knows:

• Team records and goal differentials
• Remaining schedule for all teams
• League structure (divisions, conferences, playoff formats)
• Historical home ice advantage statistics

What the system doesn't know:

• Player injuries or roster changes
• Team "momentum" or psychology
• Specific player matchups
• Coaching changes or strategy adjustments
• Back-to-back game effects

Note: When we show "In" or "Out" for playoff chances, it means our simulations never found a scenario where the team made/missed the playoffs. This is not the same as mathematical elimination—it just means the odds are astronomically small.

Big Games Explained

The "Big Games" feature identifies the most important upcoming games based on their impact on playoff races, seeding, and championship implications. Games are scored using multiple factors, and those with the highest importance are highlighted throughout the site.

Understanding Big Game Tags

When viewing Big Games, you'll see tags explaining why each game is important. Here's what each tag means:

Championship & League-Wide Impact

• "Championship race implications" — Game involves teams near the top of the standings competing for the league lead
• "Potential championship race impact" — Game could affect the race for the top position in the league

Playoff Race

• "Both teams in playoff race" — Both teams are on the playoff bubble (roughly 10-80% playoff odds)
• "One team in playoff race" — One team is fighting for a playoff spot

Playoff Seeding

• "Top 2 seeding battle" — Game affects positioning in the top 2 seeds
• "Top 4 seeding battle" — Game affects positioning in the top 4 seeds
• "Playoff seeding implications" — Game affects general playoff positioning

Team Streaks

• "Team on X-game winning streak" — One team has won multiple consecutive games (5+)
• "Team on X-game losing streak" — One team has lost multiple consecutive games (5+)

Streaks add drama and narrative interest to games, especially longer streaks (10+ or 15+ games).

Playoff Contention

• "Both teams strong playoff contenders" — Both teams have good playoff odds (>50%)
• "Strong vs moderate playoff contender" — Matchup between teams with different playoff probabilities
• "Both teams in playoff contention" — Both teams have realistic playoff chances (>20%)
• "One team in playoff contention" — One team is a playoff contender
• "One team nearly guaranteed playoff spot" — Note indicating a lopsided matchup (reduces importance)

Standings & Quality

• "Teams very close in standings" — Teams are within a few points of each other
• "Teams close in standings" — Teams are reasonably close in the standings
• "Both teams having strong seasons" — Both teams are performing well (high points percentage)
• "Both teams above .500" — Both teams have winning records
• "Both teams competitive" — Both teams are playing competitive hockey

Elite Matchups

• "Elite teams matchup" — Both teams are in the top 2 of the standings
• "Top teams matchup" — Both teams are in the top 3 or 4
• "Playoff teams matchup" — Both teams are in playoff positions
• "Playoff bubble teams" — Both teams are near the playoff cutoff

How Games Are Prioritized

Games are scored with these priorities:

1. Playoff Race — Teams fighting to make the playoffs receive the highest priority
2. Championship Impact — Games affecting the league championship race
3. Seeding Battles — Games affecting playoff positioning (lower priority than making the playoffs)
4. Streaks & Narrative — Games involving teams on significant winning/losing streaks
5. Competitive Matchups — Games between closely-matched teams
6. Recency — Games happening sooner are prioritized over games further in the future

Site-Wide Big Games

On the main landing page, Big Games from all leagues are shown together. Importance scores are adjusted based on league level (Major, AAA, AA, etc.) to account for the varying competitive contexts across different levels of play.

Biggest Movers Explained

The "Biggest Movers" feature highlights teams whose playoff odds have changed the most significantly since the previous day's games. This helps you quickly identify which teams have seen their playoff hopes improve or decline dramatically.

How It Works

After each day's games are completed and new simulations are run, we compare each team's current playoff odds to their odds from the previous update. Teams with the largest changes—either positive or negative—are featured as "Biggest Movers."

What You'll See

• Positive Movers (↑): Teams whose playoff odds have increased the most, shown in green
• Negative Movers (↓): Teams whose playoff odds have decreased the most, shown in red
• Change Amount: The percentage point change in playoff odds (e.g., +12.5% means odds went from 50% to 62.5%)
• Current Odds: The team's current playoff probability after the change

Where to Find Biggest Movers

• Main Landing Page: Shows the top movers across all leagues
• League Pages: Shows the top 5 movers within that specific league
• Conference Pages: Shows the top 3 movers within that conference
• Division Pages: Shows the top mover within that division

Understanding the Data

League Pages

League-wide standings and analysis:

• Conference Standings: Teams ranked by conference with playoff odds
• Division Standings: Teams ranked by division with playoff odds
• Playoff Advancement Odds: For teams that make the playoffs, shows the probability of advancing through each round and winning the championship. Includes expected playoff games and rounds.
• RPI Rankings: Strength ratings across the entire league
• Place Chances: Probability of finishing in each position
• Biggest Movers: Top 5 teams with the largest playoff odds changes

Conference Pages

Conference-specific standings and analysis:

• Conference Standings: Teams ranked within their conference
• Conference-based Seeding: Where teams rank within their conference
• Playoff Odds: Conference-specific playoff probabilities
• Big Games: Important games affecting conference standings
• Biggest Movers: Top 3 teams with the largest playoff odds changes

Division Pages

Division-specific standings and analysis:

• Division Standings: Teams ranked within their division
• Division-based Seeding: Where teams rank within their division
• Playoff Odds: Division-specific playoff probabilities
• Big Games: Important games affecting division standings
• Biggest Movers: Top team with the largest playoff odds change

Team Pages

Each team page provides comprehensive information:

• Team Details: Current record, points, playoff chances, and basic statistics
• Recent Games: Multiple recent game results with playoff chances change for each game. The number of games displayed adjusts based on your device (2 on mobile, 3 on tablet, 5 on desktop)
• Big Games: Upcoming important games and their playoff implications
• Performance Analysis: Historical trends and detailed performance splits (see below)
• What If Section: Scenarios showing how different outcomes would affect playoff chances

Performance Analysis

The Performance Analysis section provides deep insights into team performance across multiple dimensions:

• Last 10 Games & Last 30 Days: Recent form with record, points, goal differential, and visual sparklines showing points percentage trends
• Playoff Advancement Odds: Detailed playoff probability breakdown showing playoff qualification probability, advancement odds for each round (Round 1, Round 2, Round 3, Round 4, Championship), expected playoff games and rounds. Uses league-specific trophy names (e.g., Stanley Cup, Calder Cup) and dynamically displays rounds based on league structure (2-5 rounds). Only rounds with data are shown.
• Home vs Away: Performance split showing how the team performs at home versus on the road, with comparison to league average
• Monthly Splits: Performance broken down by month throughout the season
• By Opponent Conference/Division: Records against each conference and division. All conferences and divisions are always shown, even if the team hasn't played them yet (displayed as 0-0-0-0)
• After Previous Result: How the team performs after different outcomes:
  • After a Win
  • After a Regulation Loss
  • After an Overtime Loss (OTL)
  • After a Shootout Loss (SOL)
  All categories are always shown, even if no games match that criteria (displayed as 0-0-0-0)
• By Days Rest: Performance based on amount of rest between games:
  • 0 Days Rest (back-to-back games)
  • 1 Day Rest
  • 2+ Days Rest
  0 and 1 day rest categories are always shown, even if no games match (displayed as 0-0-0-0)
• Win/Loss Streaks: Current streak (displayed in header and detailed section) and longest streaks of the season. Streaks use singular "game" (e.g., "5 game winning streak")
• Game Margin: Performance in close games versus blowouts:
  • One-Goal Games
  • Two-Goal Games
  • Blowouts (3+ goal margin)
• By Opponent Strength: Record against teams that were above or below .500 at the time the game was played. This provides context about the quality of competition, as a team's record may change throughout the season
• Goal Scoring Trends: 30-day trend line showing average goals for, goals against, and goal differential over time
• Magic/Tragic Number: Mathematical indicators of playoff positioning:
  • Magic Number: The number of points the team needs to win (or other teams need to lose) to mathematically clinch a playoff spot. This number decreases as the team earns points or as competing teams lose points. When the magic number reaches 0, the team has clinched a playoff berth.
  • Tragic Number: The number of points the team can lose (or other teams can win) before being mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. This number decreases as the team loses points or as competing teams earn points. When the tragic number reaches 0, the team can no longer make the playoffs.
  • If a team has already clinched a playoff spot, the status will show "Clinched Playoffs" instead of a magic number.
  • If a team has already been eliminated, the status will show "Eliminated" instead of a tragic number.
• League/Conference/Division Positioning: Tracks team position history throughout the season with three separate cards:
  • League Positioning: Shows current position (with "since" date indicating when the team first reached this position), best position achieved, worst position, and recent change narrative
  • Conference Positioning: Same metrics but within the team's conference
  • Division Positioning: Same metrics but within the team's division
  • Positions are tracked periodically throughout the season to show position trends
  • Recent Change: Compares current position to a recent earlier position, displayed with colored arrow notation:
    • ↗ - Moved up to a better position
    • ↘ - Moved down to a worse position
    • → - Held the same position
• Performance vs Expected: Compares actual team performance to expected performance based on simulation predictions:
  • Expected Points: Based on the median final points from simulations, scaled to the current point in the season. If simulations predict a team will finish with 100 points over 82 games, and they've played 20 games, the expected points at this point would be approximately 24.4 points (100/82 * 20).
  • Expected Points %: Calculated from the expected points at the current point in the season, showing what points percentage the team "should" have based on simulation predictions.
  • Expected Goal Differential: Based on league average goals for and against per game, scaled by how the team's expected points percentage compares to the league average. Teams with higher expected points percentages are expected to have better goal differentials.
  • Expected Goals For: League average goals for per game, scaled up or down based on the team's expected points percentage relative to the league average. Better teams (higher expected points %) are expected to score more goals.
  • Expected Goals Against: League average goals against per game, scaled inversely based on the team's expected points percentage. Better teams (higher expected points %) are expected to allow fewer goals.
  • Expected Wins: Based on expected points, assuming approximately 2 points per win on average (accounts for overtime/shootout games).
  • Expected Playoff %: The average playoff rate from simulations, showing what percentage of simulations resulted in the team making the playoffs.

  The card displays actual values on the left and expected values on the right, with differences highlighted in green (overperformance) or red (underperformance). This helps identify teams that are performing better or worse than their simulation-based projections suggest.

  Note: Expected goals for/against and goal differential are only calculated when league averages are available (requires completed games with scores in the league). If league averages cannot be calculated, these metrics will show as 0.0.

All performance metrics include:

• Record (W-L-OTL-SOL format, always showing all four components)
• Points percentage (displayed without leading zero, e.g., .650 instead of 0.650)
• Comparison to season average and league average where applicable

What If Section

The What If section on team pages shows how different final point totals would affect a team's playoff chances, championship odds, and seeding probabilities. This helps you understand the impact of various season-ending scenarios.

How it works:

• Point Totals: Each row represents a different final point total the team could achieve
• Record Breakdown: Shows the win-loss-OTL-SOL record needed to reach that point total
• Playoff Chances: The probability of making the playoffs if the team finishes with that point total. "In" means every simulation resulted in playoffs, "Out" means every simulation resulted in not making playoffs, otherwise displays as a percentage
• Championship Chances: The probability of winning the regular season championship (e.g., President's Trophy) with that point total
• Seed Chances: The probability of finishing at each seed position within the conference if the team makes the playoffs
• Simulation Count: The number of simulations that resulted in that specific point total

Understanding the data:

• Scenarios are based on Monte Carlo simulations of all remaining games
• Each scenario assumes the team finishes with the exact point total shown
• All other teams' games are still simulated, so outcomes vary
• Higher point totals generally correlate with better playoff and championship odds
• Seed chances show how likely the team is to finish at each playoff position

Team Comparison Tool

The Team Comparison Tool allows you to directly compare any two teams from the same league side-by-side across a comprehensive range of statistics and performance metrics. This feature helps you understand the relative strengths and weaknesses of different teams.

How to Use

1. Navigate to any team page
2. Use the "Compare with" dropdown in the team header to select a second team
3. Click "Compare" to view the side-by-side comparison

What's Compared

Basic Statistics

Core team metrics including points, games played, wins, losses, OT losses, SO losses, goals for/against, goal differential, and points percentage. Values are color-coded to show which team has the advantage (green = better, red = worse, neutral = equal).

Playoff & Championship Odds

Current playoff chances and league championship odds (e.g., President's Trophy for regular season champion). The championship name is displayed using the league-specific terminology. Note that "Championship Odds" in the standings tables refers to the regular season championship (highest points), while playoff advancement odds show the probability of winning the playoff championship.

Playoff Advancement Odds

Side-by-side comparison of playoff advancement probabilities, including playoff qualification probability, advancement odds for each round (Round 1, Round 2, Round 3, Round 4, Championship), and expected playoff games and rounds. Uses league-specific trophy names and dynamically displays rounds based on league structure. Only rounds with data for either team are shown.

Head-to-Head Record

Direct matchup history between the two teams, showing wins, losses, and total games played against each other this season.

Recent Form

Performance over different time periods:

• Last 10 Games: Record, points, points percentage, goal differential, goals for, goals against
• Last 7 Days: Record, points, points percentage, goal differential
• Last 30 Days: Record, points, points percentage, goal differential

Performance Splits

Detailed breakdowns of team performance across various contexts:

• Home/Away: How each team performs at home versus on the road
• Current Month: Performance in the most recent month
• By Conference: Records against each conference in the league (all conferences shown, even if no games played)
• By Division: Records against each division in the league (all divisions shown, even if no games played)
• After Previous Game Results: Performance following wins, regulation losses, overtime losses, and shootout losses (all 4 types always shown)
• By Rest Days: Performance with 0 days rest (back-to-back), 1 day rest, and 2+ days rest (all types always shown)
• By Game Type: Performance in one-goal games, two-goal games, and blowout games (3+ goal margin) (all types always shown)
• By Opponent Strength: Performance against teams that were above .500 or below .500 at the time the game was played

Performance vs Expected

Compares each team's actual performance to their expected performance based on simulation predictions. Shows the difference between actual and expected values for:

• Points: Actual points vs expected points (based on median simulation predictions)
• Points %: Actual points percentage vs expected points percentage
• Goal Diff: Actual goal differential vs expected goal differential (based on league averages scaled by expected performance)
• Goals For: Actual goals scored vs expected goals (based on league average scaled by expected points %)
• Goals Against: Actual goals allowed vs expected goals allowed (based on league average scaled inversely by expected points %)
• Wins: Actual wins vs expected wins
• Playoff %: Actual playoff odds vs expected playoff rate from simulations

Differences are displayed with green highlighting for overperformance (better than expected) and red highlighting for underperformance (worse than expected). This helps identify which team is performing better or worse relative to their simulation-based projections.

Streaks

Current winning/losing streak and longest streaks of the season (winning and losing).

Understanding the Display

• Color Coding: Green indicates a better value, red indicates a worse value, and neutral indicates equal values. For percentages, "N/A" (shown when a team has a 0-0-0-0 record) is treated as 0.500 for comparison purposes.
• Missing Data: When a team has no games in a particular category (e.g., no games against a specific conference), the record shows "0-0-0-0" and the points percentage shows "N/A".
• Comprehensive Coverage: All relevant categories are always displayed, even if one or both teams have no data in that category, ensuring a complete comparison.

Interactive Features

Sortable Tables

All standings tables are fully sortable:

• Click any column header to sort by that column
• Click again to reverse the sort order
• Sort preferences are saved - Your sorting choice is remembered when you return to the page
• Tables intelligently parse numbers, dates, and percentages for accurate sorting

Interactive Charts

The playoff odds and points progression charts are highly interactive:

• Hover over chart lines to see exact values and highlight the corresponding team in the table, legend, and navigation pane
• Click legend items to show/hide individual teams on the chart
• Click conference/division buttons to toggle all teams in that group
• Collapsible legend sections: Click the "Graph Legend" header to collapse or expand the legend section, reducing visual clutter. Your preference is saved and remembered when you return to the page
• Enhanced precision on hover: Hover over odds cells in tables or chart tooltips to see full decimal precision (6 decimals for playoff/championship odds, 4 decimals for seeding odds)
• View Controls: Use the Season, Month, and Week view buttons to quickly zoom both charts to different time ranges. Season view shows the entire date range, Month view shows a rolling 30-day window, and Week view shows a rolling 7-day window. When in Month or Week view, use the Previous (◀) and Next (▶) navigation arrows to move through historical periods. On mobile devices, charts default to week view for better readability
• Save View Settings: Click the "Save View" button in the header to save your current view preferences (graph view mode, table sorting, and collapsed sections). Your saved settings will be automatically restored when you return to the page
• Zoom Controls: Charts support zooming via mouse wheel and drag selection. Both charts zoom together when using the view buttons

Navigation Pane

The sidebar navigation provides quick access and organization:

• Collapsible sections: Conferences, divisions, and teams can be collapsed/expanded
• Automatic organization: Teams are grouped by division within their conference
• Current page highlighting: The active page's section is automatically expanded

Navigation Guide

Main Navigation

• League Dropdown: Select a league to view its standings and teams
• About Link: This page explaining the site features and methodology
• Feedback Link: Submit bug reports, feature requests, feedback, or comments via Google Forms

Page Structure

• League Pages: Conference standings and league-wide statistics
• Conference Pages: Teams within a specific conference
• Division Pages: Teams within a specific division
• Team Pages: Detailed information for individual teams